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Researchers predicting another active  hurricane season

Researchers predicting another active  hurricane season

Researchers predicting another active  hurricane season

FORT COLLINS, Co (treasurecoast.com)- Researchers are predicting another active  hurricane season.

On Thursday, Colorado State University’s Tropical Weather and Climate Research Division, led by Dr. Philip Klotzbach, released their outlook for the 2022 hurricane season.

The lack of El Niño in the Pacific Ocean, and warmer than normal Atlantic water temperatures, are again expected to heavily contribute to the tropical outlook.

There has been some debate on whether or not the Atlantic Ocean basin is actually experiencing “above-average” hurricane seasons — or whether new technologies, including enhanced weather satellites, is making it easier to observe storms that previously could have gone undetected.

When researchers, including those at Colorado State University, determine a season to be more or less than the average, that prediction compares to cumulative averages observed between 1991 – 2020, which is well after the launch of the first weather satellites.

The 2022 forecast calls for nineteen named storms (tropical storm or stronger) with nine of them reaching hurricane status. Of those nine, four are forecast to become a major hurricane.

The average numbers from the past 30 years showed 14.4 named storms, 7.2 hurricanes, and 3.2 major hurricanes.

This is what they said:

We anticipate that the 2022 Atlantic basin hurricane season will have above-normal activity.

Current weak La Niña conditions look fairly likely to transition to neutral ENSO by this summer/fall, but the odds of a significant El Niño seem unlikely. Sea surface temperatures averaged across the eastern and central tropical Atlantic are currently near average, while Caribbean and subtropical Atlantic sea surface temperatures are warmer than normal. We anticipate an above-average probability for major hurricanes making landfall along the continental United States coastline and in the Caribbean. As is the case with all hurricane seasons, coastal residents are reminded that it only takes one hurricane making landfall to make it an active season for them. They should prepare the same for every season, regardless of how much activity is predicted.

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Average August-October sea surface temperature anomalies in CSU’s six analog years for 2022 Atlantic hurricane season: 1996, 2000, 2001, 2008, 2012 and 2021. Analogs selected based on cool neutral ENSO/weak La Nina and near average to warm tropical Atlantic for August-October.

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